The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February Short-Term Energy Outlook predicts that in 2025 and 2026, countries outside the OPEC+ group will outpace OPEC+ members in boosting global oil and petroleum product output. Worldwide supply, which grew by about 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, is expected to jump by 1.9 million b/d in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026.
This uptick is fueled primarily by higher crude oil extraction in four Americas-based nations: the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil. In contrast, OPEC+ countries, constrained by ongoing production limits, will see their output edge up by only 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026.
Between 2024 and 2026, Canada’s production is projected to increase by 0.5 million b/d, while Guyana and Brazil will each add 0.3 million b/d.
The United States will lead the charge, with an anticipated rise of 1.1 million b/d over the period—comprising a 0.6 million b/d boost in 2025 and a 0.5 million b/d increase in 2026.