Under the “high growth” scenario outlined in a joint report by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), identified global uranium reserves are expected to be exhausted by the 2080s. This scenario envisions a significant expansion of nuclear capacity by 2050, followed by the maintenance of elevated levels thereafter.
While there are sufficient uranium reserves to support this projected growth, the report warns that: “Immediate action is required to ensure adequate uranium supplies in the medium term.”
Earlier this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that nuclear energy has entered a “new era,” with interest reaching heights not seen since the oil crises of the 1970s. Annual investments in nuclear energy have surged by nearly 50% over the three years since 2020.
Nevertheless, the report stresses that the rapidly increasing demand must be matched by corresponding investments in the mining of uranium — the critical metal used in nuclear fuel. Nuclear capacity is projected to grow by 130% by 2050 compared to 2022 levels under the high-growth scenario. However, even this figure is likely an underestimate. Industry representatives caution that uranium demand is soaring, and Western energy companies risk facing significant shortages.
Kazakhstan, the world’s leading uranium producer — accounting for 43% of global production — has, in recent years, shifted more of its sales toward Russia and China, while reducing exports to the United States and Europe. In 2022, Kazakhstan produced more uranium than the combined output of Canada, Namibia, Australia, and Uzbekistan — the next largest producers.