Takeaways from “KPMG: Vietnam 2026 Outlook”:
- “Resolution 68: Vietnam’s private-sector sprint”: government aims to create 20 global private champions by 2030 and double active private firms, signalling a state-backed tilt from low-cost manufacturing to scalable, high-value domestic champions.
- “GDP: growth that looks like a different region”: real GDP ~7.1% in 2024, target ~8% public-investment push for 2025 (US$36bn), growth + big capex = structural reflation thesis for Vietnam assets.
- “Trade engine still humming”: ninth straight trade surplus; exports hit US$405.5bn (2024) and the government set a US$454bn export target for 2025, Vietnam is not ‘just’ low-cost; it’s industrial export power.
- “FDI is real money, not just PR”: FDI disbursement at an all-time high: ~US$25.35bn (2024); manufacturing, semiconductors, energy lead, foreign builders are setting up shop, not just speaking at conferences.
- “Powering the pivot - PDP8”: revised Power Development Plan (PDP8) drives massive renewables scale (targets to 2030/2050) and even exportable clean-power ambitions, energy capex to support industry, EV/semiconductor hubs.
- “AI + chips” line: Vietnam rolled out a semiconductor roadmap (Decision 1018): a three-phase plan to build design, packaging/testing, then chip fabs by 2050; the country wants a seat at the global chip table.
- “Digital economy = growth insurance”: government target: digital economy to reach ~30% of GDP by 2030; data center growth, cloud and 5G rollout create a domestic tech stack playbook.
- “Regulation tightening = double-edged sword”: new Personal Data Protection Law (effective 1 Jan 2026) and stronger compliance regimes: better investor protection but higher operational cost for cross-border tech firms.
- “Infrastructure = the multiplier”: big road, port, airport projects (Long Thanh airport, ring roads, expressways), a 40% infrastructure push could add ~2pp to GDP in 2025: think logistics, industrial land re-rating.
- “Talent + cost combo”: ‘golden population’ (large working-age cohort) + low wages (factory wages remain a fraction of regional peers) = sustained competitiveness for export manufacturing.
- “Capital markets & FX: liquidity watch”: banking credit growth and NPLs are rising; capital markets remain shallow and FX/capital-flow rules could limit large institutional allocations, political will to deepen markets is present but execution risk is real.
- “Green capex = export optionality”: PDP8’s renewables ambition includes exportable power capacity (5–10 GW by 2035), energy exports as a new external-sector lever.
- “Sectoral trade flows to watch”: electronics/phones remain top exports; medical devices, semiconductors and high-value manufacturing are where foreign capex is clustering.
