The U.S. fentanyl epidemic, which Donald Trump supposedly “defeated” with a three-day tariff stunt against Mexico and Canada, is a perfect example of how political narratives overwrite reality.
1. What Is Fentanyl and Why Is It So Deadly?
Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid 100 times more potent than morphine. Its widespread use in conventional medicine—often combined in microdoses with muscle relaxants, sedatives, and antipsychotics—created an easy path for recreational abuse. It requires only tiny amounts for a powerful effect, making it ideal for smuggling and mixing with other drugs to enhance their potency.
The problem? A single milligram can be fatal. It has no color, taste, or smell, making trace contamination almost impossible to detect. Cartel-run drug labs are hardly known for their quality control, meaning every dose—whether pure fentanyl or laced cocaine—is a game of Russian roulette. This is why nearly 100,000 Americans die each year from opioid overdoses.
2. The Logical Evolution of an American Crisis
The fentanyl epidemic didn’t appear out of nowhere. It was the natural progression of America’s prescription opioid crisis, which has been raging for over 25 years. Fentanyl is stronger and cheaper than oxycodone, making it the next step down in the spiral of addiction.
At the start of Trump’s first term, prescription opioids caused around 15,000 overdose deaths per year, while heroin and illicit fentanyl combined for about 20,000 more. By the time he left office, prescription-related deaths remained at 15,000, heroin fell to 10,000—but fentanyl had exploded to 70,000 deaths annually. COVID-19 only made things worse by cutting access to legal prescriptions, reducing drug purity, and limiting emergency overdose treatments.
3. The Biden Administration’s Strategy
Under Biden, the situation started to improve. The COVID chaos faded, making overdose reversal drugs like naloxone more widely available. The crisis was formally recognized as a national emergency, with the administration using diplomatic negotiations with China (to curb precursor chemical production) and Mexico (to disrupt fentanyl trafficking).
Law enforcement made headline-grabbing seizures of “300 million lethal doses”—a dramatic way to frame fentanyl busts, since the drug is so potent that traditional weight-based statistics (like tons of cocaine) don’t apply.
4. The Real Reason for the Decline in Deaths
The real shift, however, wasn’t about U.S. enforcement—it was the cartels changing their business model. According to the DEA, in 2024 only 50% of fentanyl-laced pills contained a potentially lethal dose, down from 70% during the peak of COVID. This alone led to a 10-25% drop in fentanyl deaths, depending on which estimates you believe.
So, who do we thank for saving lives? Not heroic U.S. agents, but cartel chemists, who figured out how to make their product less deadly while keeping users hooked.
5. Enter Trump: Master of the Political Magic Trick
The Trump team knows fentanyl deaths were already declining in 2024. But “increased naloxone access” and “improved cartel quality control” don’t make for a great campaign slogan. Instead, they needed a “big political win”.
So, they followed a classic playbook:
1. Find a long-term trend already moving in the direction you want.
2. Take some flashy but meaningless action.
3. Claim that all positive results afterward were caused by your action.
It’s the Pharaoh and the Nile Effect—the river floods because the ruler willed it. And now, Trump will claim fentanyl deaths fell because of his symbolic attack on Mexico and Canada.
Expect to hear loud declarations of victory when the final numbers for 2024 and early 2025 come in. He’ll proclaim he “single-handedly turned the tide” with tough but necessary measures.
Meanwhile, legal pharmaceutical opioids will continue killing tens of thousands each year. The U.S. will still be issuing 150-200 million opioid prescriptions, with some “special” doctors writing thousands per year.
But that’s different. That’s legal. That’s big pharma. That’s campaign donors.