For decades, U.S. presidents have pressured OPEC to lower oil prices—a predictable ritual in response to rising energy costs. Biden did it, Trump 1.0 did it, and nearly every president since OPEC’s rise has followed suit. The results, however, have been largely symbolic, with little real impact on global oil markets.
Genuine shifts in oil prices stem from structural actions, not words. For example, the development of the Permian Basin brought significant supply to the market, although it was originally intended as a strategic reserve for national emergencies. Shale producers, operating at a loss for years and supported by the Federal Reserve’s accommodative policies, further flooded the market. However, it’s important to note that there is no second Permian Basin to exploit.
Similarly, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), designed as an emergency buffer, has been tapped repeatedly in recent years to stabilize prices. While effective in the short term, the SPR has been significantly depleted. Refilling it is not only a slow process but one that comes with considerable risk if a real emergency arises.
Sanctions on oil-producing nations, particularly Iran, have been another lever used to influence prices. However, lifting sanctions provides only temporary relief, as there is no equivalent “second Iran” that could serve as a similar geopolitical release valve. Russia, with its critical role in global energy markets, adds further complexity to this dynamic.
Amid this backdrop, Trump’s statements demanding OPEC action stand in contrast to his administration’s broader energy strategies, including increased pressure on Iran, promises to replenish the SPR, and strong support from the American oil industry. With major investors focused on maximizing profits rather than market share, these conflicting priorities highlight the challenges of managing energy policy in a complex global market.
Presidents can call for cheaper oil all they want, but the deeper reality is clear: without a fundamental overhaul of energy strategies, the price of oil won’t just stay high—it could spiral into a geopolitical flashpoint no one is ready to handle.
